Energy, climate and carbon pricing
Rayyane El Khourassani · The Rational Project · 27 October 2026
The 2026 oil shock amounted to an implicit carbon price of about $100/tCO₂ in September, roughly the price of an EU ETS allowance. At the pump the diesel signal is on average 2.3 times stronger in the EU (1.5 to 3.3 times depending on the country), and governments have taken back part of it by cutting taxes and prices.
How to cite. El Khourassani, R. (2026), The 2026 oil shock as an implicit carbon price, The Rational Project, analysis note, 27 October 2026.
Summary
- Crude sends the same signal everywhere. $74/t in March ($103/bbl on average[4]), $47/t in August[5] and $100/t in September[1]. Daily peaks reach $133/t on 2 April[4] and $140/t on 15 September[1].
- The pump amplifies it, very unevenly. On average in the EU, +$226/tCO₂ for diesel and +$168/tCO₂ for petrol between 23 February and 19 October[2]. The range runs from 0 (Malta, state-fixed price) to $329/tCO₂ (diesel, Finland).
- Governments have taken back part of the signal. Germany’s 17-cent-per-litre rebate[6, 7] is worth €63/t for diesel and €72/t for petrol, of the same order as the ceiling of the national CO₂ corridor (€65[8]). Japan, India, Canada, Australia, Korea and Sweden have also cut taxes or prices.
- The EU ETS has not been suspended. On 20 October the Council and Parliament reached a provisional agreement raising the Market Stability Reserve’s invalidation threshold from 400 to 700 million allowances[9, 10].
The signal people endured exceeded any legislated price. Governments mostly cut energy taxes, rarely a carbon price.
The effect of these prices on behaviour is not measured here.
1 Method
The implicit carbon price is the rise in the oil price divided by the emissions a barrel releases when burned: divide by 0.43.
- Factor of 0.43 tCO₂/bbl: average emissions of a barrel of burned petroleum products (0.4319 according to the EPA[11]), about 2.7 kg of CO₂ per litre (a barrel is 159 litres).
- Reference: pre-shock Brent, $71/bbl on average in February 2026, before the war began on 28 February[38]. This level is inferred from EIA series[1, 4]: March averaged $103, i.e. $32 more than February[4].
Two levels of reading. The crude level is identical for every country: the Brent increase divided by 0.43. The pump level is national: the rise in the tax-inclusive price per litre, multiplied by the number of litres that emit one tonne (diesel: 372 L/tCO₂, i.e. 2.69 kg/L; petrol: 426 L/tCO₂, i.e. 2.35 kg/L[11]).
The gap between the two levels measures what taxes, exchange rates and fiscal measures do: a proportional VAT amplifies the signal, a fixed excise dilutes it, a tax rebate reduces it.
This is not a carbon price in the legal sense: it is neither legislated, nor announced in advance, nor stable. It is a price signal that is endured, to be compared with a designed price such as the EU ETS.
2 Results by country
At the pump, the implicit carbon price of the shock ranges from $152 to $329/tCO₂ for diesel in the EU (average $226), i.e. 1.5 to 3.3 times the September crude level ($100).
| Country | Diesel rise | Diesel $/tCO₂ | Petrol rise | Petrol $/tCO₂ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EU (weighted average) | +34.2% | 226 | +21.6% | 168 |
| Finland | +45.7% | 329 | +35.8% | 291 |
| Belgium | +44.5% | 300 | +32.2% | 230 |
| Denmark | +40.6% | 299 | +34.4% | 317 |
| Germany, excluding rebate | +40.8% | 291 | +31.4% | 269 |
| France | +42.2% | 289 | +30.4% | 246 |
| Estonia | +48.2% | 278 | +34.5% | 238 |
| Bulgaria | +53.4% | 272 | +35.1% | 203 |
| Luxembourg | +42.0% | 256 | +22.7% | 157 |
| Cyprus | +43.5% | 254 | +34.1% | 213 |
| Lithuania | +37.4% | 251 | +33.8% | 234 |
| United States | +67.3% | 249 | +46.0% | 154 |
| Czechia | +43.3% | 245 | +35.7% | 233 |
| Austria | +37.9% | 243 | +20.4% | 146 |
| Netherlands | +31.1% | 242 | +16.0% | 156 |
| Greece | +37.3% | 240 | +26.1% | 215 |
| Portugal | +35.9% | 238 | +24.5% | 196 |
| Italy | +31.8% | 225 | +21.8% | 171 |
| Latvia | +35.0% | 222 | +27.2% | 198 |
| Germany, with rebate | +30.9% | 221 | +22.0% | 188 |
| Slovakia | +33.1% | 201 | +27.9% | 195 |
| Sweden | +29.9% | 195 | +14.4% | 98 |
| Spain | +32.7% | 193 | +21.0% | 147 |
| Croatia | +30.8% | 191 | +22.8% | 160 |
| Romania | +27.2% | 181 | +22.6% | 166 |
| Slovenia | +29.7% | 180 | +23.3% | 157 |
| Hungary | +28.3% | 178 | +21.1% | 147 |
| Ireland | +23.0% | 166 | +13.3% | 110 |
| Poland | +25.7% | 152 | +13.3% | 87 |
| Japan, with subsidy | n/a | n/a | +13.2% | 53 |
| Malta, state-fixed price | 0% | 0 | 0% | 0 |
Four non-euro countries, in local currency (exchange rates for these currencies are not sourced, hence no conversion):
| Country | Fuel | Rise in tax-inclusive price | Implicit price per tCO₂ | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United Kingdom | diesel | +56.8 p/L (+39.9%) | £211 | 28 Sept., ref. 28 Feb. [16, 37] |
| United Kingdom | petrol | +41.3 p/L (+31.1%) | £176 | 28 Sept., ref. 28 Feb. [16, 37] |
| Canada | petrol | +C$0.43/L (+33.1%) | C$183 (C$226 without the 10 c excise suspension) | 2 Sept., ref. end Feb. [17, 18, 34] |
| India | diesel, petrol | about +₹7.5/L | ₹2,790 (diesel), ₹3,190 (petrol), before the ₹10/L excise cut | 25 May, latest reading found [19, 20] |
| Australia | diesel (5 largest cities) | +70.7 c/L (+40.0%) | A$263 | 5 Aug., ref. 20 Feb. [32] |
Dates and bases of comparison. EU: 23 February and 19 October (Commission oil bulletin[2]). Germany: 2 February and 5 October[12, 36]; the EU table omits it, and the gap between 2 and 23 February is 1% on the EU average. The 5 October prices (petrol €2.196/L, diesel €2.254/L) already include the 17 ct rebate; the “excluding rebate” row adds it back. United States: pre-war AAA prices ($2.98 and $3.76/gal) against the EIA’s September average ($4.35 and $6.29)[13, 1]. Japan: mid-February (¥150) against 17 August (¥169.8), with about ¥20/L of subsidy[14, 15]. Sweden: temporary cuts to fuel taxes and the CO₂ tax included[22, 23]. Denmark: petrol net of average discounts. Poland: conversion at each week’s exchange rate[2].
3 Orders of magnitude
September crude ($100/tCO₂) exceeds the EU ETS allowance ($92) and weighs 1.4 to 1.6 times the German CO₂ corridor ($61–72).
| Benchmark | Basis | $/tCO₂ | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent spot, March (average) | $103/bbl, i.e. +$32 | 74 | [4] |
| Brent spot, 2 April peak | nearly $128/bbl, i.e. +$57 | 133 | [4] |
| Brent spot, July | about $83/bbl (derived), i.e. +$12 over February | 28 | [5] |
| Brent spot, August | $91/bbl, i.e. +$20 | 47 | [5] |
| Brent spot, September (average) | $114/bbl, i.e. +$43 | 100 | [1] |
| Brent spot, 15 September peak | $131/bbl, i.e. +$60 | 140 | [1] |
| EU ETS allowance, 5 October | €82.40 | 92 | [3] |
| German CO2 corridor, 2026 and 2027 | €55–65 | 61–72 | [8, 24] |
Calculation: Brent increase over February ($71/bbl, EIA average) ÷ 0.43. Euros are converted at $1.115, the rate implied by the S&P price published on 5 October[3].
What governments absorbed
| Country | Measure | Value per tCO₂ | Share of the increase cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Germany | tax rebate of 17 ct/L (1 May–30 June, then 1 October to end 2026) [6, 7, 35] | €63 for diesel, €72 for petrol | 24% (diesel), 30% (petrol) |
| Japan | subsidy to wholesalers, about ¥50/L at the April peak, ¥20/L in August [14, 15] | ¥21,300 (≈$135) at the peak, ¥8,500 (≈$54) in August, for petrol | 50% in August |
| Canada | federal excise suspended from 20 April to 31 January 2027: 10 c/L on petrol, 4 c/L on diesel [17, 18, 34] | C$43 (petrol), C$15 (diesel) | 19% (petrol) |
| Australia | excise cut by 32 c/L from April to June, 16 c/L in July, restored on 3 August [21, 32] | A$119 (diesel), A$136 (petrol), at 32 c/L | n/a in September |
| India | excise cut by ₹10/L on 27 March (notified 26 March), with no cut in the pump price [19, 20] | ₹3,720 (diesel), ₹4,260 (petrol) | pump price nearly frozen until 15 May |
| South Korea | tax cut by 15% on petrol and 25% on diesel, extended to end of November [25, 33] | ₩52,000 (petrol: ₩122/L), ₩54,000 (diesel: ₩145/L) | n/a |
| Sweden | fuels brought down to the EU minimum from 1 May to 30 September [23]; CO2 tax cut by SEK 2.40/L from 1 July to 30 November [22, 23] | not quantified here | n/a |
Sweden is the only country studied where an explicit carbon tax was lowered (SEK 2.40 per litre, 1 July to 30 November). This cut, proposed in the 27 May supplementary budget and subject to EU Council authorisation, is confirmed[22, 23]. Elsewhere, governments cut energy taxes or subsidised the price, which neutralises the signal without touching the carbon price.
As for behaviour, the IEA counts record quarterly electric-car sales in 50 countries in the second quarter, up 35% on the first quarter, while the global car market fell by about 5% year on year in the first half. It forecasts electric cars at 29% of global sales in 2026, against 28% in its May forecast[26]. This note does not measure how much of that rise is due to the oil price.
4 Chart
With the 17 ct/L rebate, Germany drops from 4th to 17th place among the 26 EU countries shown (18th of 27 once the United States is included). US diesel has the largest percentage increase on the list (+67%) but ranks 10th in $/tCO₂ in the figure (11th in Table 1, where Germany appears without the rebate).
Figure 1. Implicit carbon price at the pump (diesel), 26 EU countries and the United States
Implicit carbon price, diesel at the pump ($/tCO2)
- EU
- United States
- Share cancelled by the German rebate
- EU ETS allowance, 5 Oct. ($92)
- Crude, Sept. ($100)
- German corridor ($61–72)
Note. Malta excluded (state-fixed price). For Germany, the pale bar shows the share cancelled by the 17 ct/L rebate. Sources: Commission oil bulletin[2]; EIA[1]; S&P Global[3]; Bundesregierung[6]; author’s calculations.
5 Reading and implications
The data support half of the argument: the signal people endured exceeded any legislated price, but governments mostly cut energy taxes and rarely a carbon price.
What the data support
- A signal stronger than any designed price. Crude reaches $100/t in September and diesel at the pump $152 to $329/t in Europe, against $92 for the EU ETS and $61–72 for the German corridor[2, 1, 3, 8].
- A fast and general political reaction. Tax rebates in Germany, Canada, Australia, Korea and Sweden; a subsidy in Japan; an excise cut in India. Italy and Czechia asked to suspend the intake of about 190 million allowances into the reserve, i.e. about 39% of a year of auctions according to a trader quoted by S&P[3].
- The German corridor was extended rather than lifted. Without reform, the 2027 national price would have been tied to that of the EU ETS 1, the postponement of ETS 2 to 2028 removing the transition basis[8]. On 12 August the cabinet adopted a bill keeping the €55–65 corridor[8, 27], and the Bundesrat raised no objection (Bundestag release of 29 September)[24]. According to EMA Energiewelt, the Bundestag adopted the amendment on 15 October[8]. In its position on the draft, the BEE, which had asked for a €45–75 corridor, sees in the extension a “de facto weakening” of the instrument in the face of energy crises[28].
- The signal disappears when the shock passes. With Brent at $74 in the fourth quarter of 2027 (October EIA forecast[1]), the implicit price falls back to about $7/t.
What they do not support, or not yet
- Few governments touched the carbon price itself. Among the countries studied, only Sweden lowered a CO₂ tax (until 30 November[22, 23]). The others cut excises or subsidised the price.
- The EU ETS has not been suspended. The allowance traded at €82.40 on 5 October, its lowest since 19 August[3]. The European Council conclusions call for speeding up reform of the stability reserve[29]. On 20 October the Council and Parliament reached a provisional agreement raising the reserve’s invalidation threshold from 400 to 700 million allowances, whereas the Commission had proposed on 1 April to end invalidation[9, 10, 30]. The agreement still needs formal adoption[9].
- The effect on behaviour is not isolated here. Record electric-car sales are documented by the IEA[26]; the share due to the oil price remains to be measured.
On the case for rules set in advance. The idea of a framework “with a floor and a ceiling” finds its best support in the German corridor and the European stability reserve. The floor itself is not tested by any data from the 2026 shock: it was the ceiling that came into play.
6 Limitations
- Countries. The original essay announced 35 countries; this note covers 33. For South Korea and Brazil, only measures were found, with no comparable pre-war price.
- Reference. February Brent ($71) is inferred from the EIA: March at $103, i.e. $32 more[4]. With the fourth-quarter 2025 average ($63.63, EIA[1]), all implicit prices rise by about $17/t.
- Spot and futures. The EIA gives $114 for Brent spot in September[1]. ICE futures were around $98–105 in early September, i.e. $63–79/t (indicative range, not sourced here). The “$100/t” is therefore a reading on spot.
- Pump and crude. The tax-inclusive price includes VAT, margins and refining spreads. Diesel’s exploded: international diesel reached $200.72/bbl and petrol $145.22/bbl, according to The Herald Business[31]. The pump layer is therefore not “pure” carbon.
- Dates. Readings are not aligned (list under Table 1). The readings for India (25 May), Australia (5 August) and Japan (17 August) are not from September–October.
- Exchange rates. €1 = $1.115 (S&P rate of 5 October[3]) and $1 = ¥158 (rate assumed for the yen conversions, not sourced); other currencies are not converted.
- Factors. 0.43 tCO₂/bbl (EPA: 0.4319[11]) and 2.69 / 2.35 kg/L (diesel / petrol, EPA calculator, converted from gallons). Full pass-through is assumed, with no demand effect.
- Verification level of sources. References marked • were opened and read on 27 October 2026; •◦ means the page was opened but only partly readable (paywall); ◦ means the page could not be opened. In Table 1, the rows for the EU average, Finland, Belgium, Denmark, France, Poland, Sweden, Ireland, Malta, Germany and the United States were compared with their source pages; the other rows were not re-checked one by one.
7 References
• page opened and read · •◦ page opened, partial text (paywall) · ◦ page could not be opened. All pages consulted on 27 October 2026.
- [1]•U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026.https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/archives/oct26.pdfUsed for: September Brent ($114), 15 September peak ($131), Q4 2025 and Q4 2027 Brent, US prices, forecasts.
- [2]•fuel-prices.eu, “Price shock 2026” page (data from the European Commission’s Weekly Oil Bulletin).https://www.fuel-prices.eu/press/price-shock-2026/Used for: EU pump prices, 23 February and 19 October.
- [3]•S&P Global Commodity Insights, “European carbon prices drop to 7-week low as market eyes upcoming policy agenda”, 5 October 2026.https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/natural-gas/100526-european-carbon-prices-drop-to-7-week-low-as-market-eyes-upcoming-policy-agendaUsed for: EU ETS allowance (€82.40), the EUR/USD rate implied by the $91.87 price, Italy–Czechia request.
- [4]•Rigzone, 15 April 2026 article on the EIA’s 2026 Brent forecast (about $96).https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_boosts_2026_brent_oil_price_projection_to_96-15-apr-2026-183451-article/Used for: March Brent ($103), 2 April peak.
- [5]•Rigzone, 14 September 2026 article on the EIA’s September outlook (2026 Brent average $91/bbl, i.e. $22/bbl above 2025, about +32%).https://www.rigzone.com/news/eia_sees_2026_oil_price_coming_in_22_higher_than_last_year-14-sep-2026-184606-article/Used for: August Brent ($91) and July (about $83, derived).
- [6]•Bundesregierung, “Federal and State Governments agree on tax cuts for diesel and petrol”.https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/search/relief-on-fuel-prices-2453208Used for: 17 ct/L rebate (14 ct excluding VAT) from 1 October to end 2026.
- [7]•Euronews (German edition), “Deutschland beschließt Tankrabatt: Berlin bremst Spritpreise ab Oktober”, 25 September 2026.https://de.euronews.com/2026/09/25/deutschland-beschliesst-tankrabatt-berlin-bremst-spritpreise-ab-oktoberUsed for: rebate from 1 October to 31 December, cost of about €2.5 bn, vote of 434 to 128.
- [8]•EMA Energiewelt, “CO2-Preis 2027: Das hat das Kabinett am 12. August beschlossen”.https://ema-energiewelt.de/wissen/co2-preis-2027-behg-novelle-korridor-55-65-euroUsed for: corridor of €55–65 for 2027, cabinet decision of 12 August, ETS 2 postponed to 2028, Bundestag adoption on 15 October.
- [9]•Council of the European Union, press release of 21 October 2026 on the provisional agreement on the Market Stability Reserve, reproduced by Lovguiden.https://www.lovguiden.dk/en/det-offentlige/raadet-for-den-europaeiske-union/2026-10-21-eu-aftale-om-kvotehandel-annulleringsgraensen-i-msr-haeves-til-700-mio-kvoterUsed for: agreement of 20 October, threshold from 400 to 700 million, Commission proposal of 1 April, formal adoption pending.
- [10]•◦Carbon Pulse, “EU agrees 700 mln allowance threshold for ETS market reserve”, 21 October 2026.https://carbon-pulse.com/562871/Used for: confirmation of the agreement (beginning of the article only).
- [11]•U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Greenhouse Gas Equivalencies Calculator, revision history (archive of 19 January 2025).https://19january2025snapshot.epa.gov/energy/greenhouse-gas-equivalencies-calculator-revision-historyUsed for: 0.4319 tCO2/bbl. The per-gallon factors (diesel 10.18 kg, petrol 8.89 kg, converted to 2.69 and 2.35 kg/L) come from the calculator’s “Calculations and References” page, not from this history page.
- [12]•fuel-prices.eu, Germany, reading of 2 February 2026.https://www.fuel-prices.eu/Germany/02-02-2026/Used for: pre-war German prices (petrol €1.800/L, diesel €1.722/L).
- [13]•AAA, quoted by The Star (Kenya), “US gas price tops $4 for first time since 2022”, 31 March 2026.https://www.the-star.co.ke/news/world/2026-03-31-us-gas-price-tops-4-for-first-time-since-2022Used for: pre-war US prices ($2.98 and $3.76/gal).
- [14]•Jiji Press, relayed by Adnkronos, “Japan pump price drops to 177.7 yen after subsidies resume”, 25 March 2026.https://english.adnkronos.com/2026/03/25/japan-pump-price-drops-to-177-7-yen-after-subsidies-resume/Used for: Japanese prices (¥177.7; about ¥150 in mid-February) and the subsidy to wholesalers.
- [15]•Qatar Tribune, “Japan keeps lid on gas prices as Middle East conflict threatens supplies”, 27 August 2026.https://www.qatar-tribune.com/article/250673/business/japan-keeps-lid-on-gas-prices-as-middle-east-conflict-threatens-suppliesUsed for: subsidy of about ¥50/L at the April peak and about ¥20/L recently; ¥169.8/L on 17 August.
- [16]◦RAC, relayed by TS2 Tech, UK fuel prices.https://ts2.tech/?p=21268464Used for: UK prices, 28 February and 28 September. The page could not be opened; the figures are confirmed by [37].
- [17]•Wealth Professional, “A gas tax holiday that gasoline prices already outran”, 3 September 2026.https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/news/industry-news/a-gas-tax-holiday-that-gasoline-prices-already-outran/393438Used for: suspension of the federal excise in Canada, extended to 31 January 2027; gasoline price of C$1.729/L on 2 September.
- [18]•BNN Bloomberg, “Will Canada cut the gas tax amid price spike? Champagne won’t say”, 24 March 2026.https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2026/03/24/will-canada-cut-the-gas-tax-amid-price-spike-champagne-wont-say/Used for: context only (federal excise of 10 c/L on petrol and 4 c/L on diesel; no suspension yet at that date).
- [19]•Moneylife, “Petrol excise duty down to ₹3, diesel nil: no change in retail prices as govt aims to cut OMC losses”.https://moneylife.in/article/petrol-excise-duty-down-to-3-diesel-nil-no-change-in-retail-prices-as-govt-aims-to-cut-omc-losses/80059.htmlUsed for: excise cut of about ₹10/L in India (petrol ₹13 to ₹3, diesel ₹10 to nil), no change in retail prices.
- [20]•Ease My Prep, article on successive petrol and diesel price rises in India.https://easemyprep.in/news/1525-petrol-diesel-prices-hiked-for-fourth-time-in-ten-days-latest-by-about-28-per-liUsed for: pump prices in India, 25 May 2026 (about +₹7.5/L since 15 May).
- [21]•IndexBox, “ACCC fuel report: prices rise as fuel excise cut expires”.https://www.indexbox.io/blog/accc-fuel-report-prices-rise-as-fuel-excise-cut-expires/Used for: Australian excise path (32 c/L from 1 April, 16 c/L restored on 1 July, the rest on 3 August) and diesel prices at 29 July.
- [22]•KPMG, TaxNewsFlash, 29 June 2026, Swedish proposal to extend fuel tax reductions.https://kpmg.com/us/en/taxnewsflash/news/2026/06/sweden-proposal-extend-fuel-tax-reductions.htmlUsed for: CO2 tax cut by SEK 2.40/L from 1 July to 30 November (proposal of 27 May, subject to EU Council authorisation).
- [23]•Fiscal Requirements, “Sweden: government extends fuel tax relief” (note 5468).https://www.fiscal-requirements.com/news/5468-sweden-government-extends-fuel-tax-reliefUsed for: fuels brought down to the EU minimum from 1 May to 30 September; draft of 13 May.
- [24]•Deutscher Bundestag, hib 755/2026, 29 September 2026 (Drucksachen 21/7869 and 21/8252).https://www.bundestag.de/presse/hib/kurzmeldungen-1218118Used for: the Bundesrat raises no objection; corridor of €55–65.
- [25]•Kyunghyang Shinmun (Khan), English edition, 24 July 2026.https://www.khan.co.kr/en/article/202607240937027Used for: Korean fuel tax cut of 15% (petrol) and 25% (diesel), extended to end of September at that date. The extension to end of November and the ₩122/L and ₩145/L reductions are from [33].
- [26]•International Energy Agency, “Quarterly sales of electric cars break records in several key markets amid energy crisis”.https://www.iea.org/news/quarterly-sales-of-electric-cars-break-records-in-several-key-markets-amid-energy-crisisUsed for: record electric-car sales.
- [27]•ICAP, “Germany set to extend national carbon price corridor through 2027”.https://icapcarbonaction.com/en/news/germany-set-extend-national-carbon-price-corridor-through-2027Used for: BEHG bill, 2027 corridor, €73 and €75 thresholds.
- [28]•Bundesverband Erneuerbare Energie (BEE), Stellungnahme zum Referentenentwurf BEHG, 15 July 2026, p. 4.https://www.bee-ev.de/fileadmin/Redaktion/Bilder/Meldungen/Stellungnahmen/2026/260715_BEE_Stellungnahme_Referentenentwurf_BEHG.pdfUsed for: request for a €45–75 corridor; “de facto Abschwächung des Instruments”.
- [29]•ČTK, relayed by oenergetice.cz, “Czechia and V4 secured new ETS2 demands at summit”.https://oenergetice.cz/en/co2-emissions/czechia-and-v4-secured-new-ets2-demands-at-summitUsed for: European Council conclusions of 15–16 October (Article 7, accelerate the reserve reform).
- [30]•ČTK, relayed by oenergetice.cz, “Compromise on emissions allowances reached, EU backs away from tougher proposal”.https://oenergetice.cz/en/european-union/compromise-on-emissions-allowances-reached-eu-backs-away-from-tougher-proposalUsed for: agreement on the stability reserve.
- [31]•The Herald Business (Korea), 18 September 2026, article on highway fuel discounts for Chuseok and the extension of the fuel tax cut.https://biz.heraldcorp.com/article/10878085Used for: international diesel at $200.72/bbl and petrol at $145.22/bbl.
- [32]•ACCC, Weekly fuel price monitoring report, 7 August 2026.https://www.accc.gov.au/system/files/weekly-fuel-price-monitoring-report-7-august-2026.pdfUsed for: diesel in the 5 largest cities, 176.6 c/L (20 Feb) to 247.3 c/L (5 Aug), i.e. +70.7 c/L (+40.0%); excise path.
- [33]•The Herald Business (Korea), 18 September 2026.https://biz.heraldcorp.com/article/10877787Used for: tax cut extended to end of November; reductions of ₩122/L (petrol) and ₩145/L (diesel), VAT included.
- [34]•Department of Finance Canada, “Temporarily suspending the federal fuel excise tax”, April 2026.https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2026/04/temporarily-suspending-the-federal-fuel-excise-tax.htmlUsed for: suspension of 10 c/L (petrol) and 4 c/L (diesel) from 20 April 2026.
- [35]•Volksstimme, “Koalition einig: Tankrabatt läuft Ende Juni aus” (updated 10 June 2026).https://www.volksstimme.de/deutschland-und-welt/wirtschaft/koalition-einig-tankrabatt-lauft-ende-juni-aus-4265247Used for: first German rebate, 1 May to 30 June 2026.
- [36]•fuel-prices.eu, Germany, reading of 5 October 2026.https://www.fuel-prices.eu/Germany/05-10-2026/Used for: petrol €2.196/L and diesel €2.254/L (with the 17 ct rebate).
- [37]•RAC, relayed by energynews.pro, 28 September 2026.https://energynews.pro/en/uk-diesel-prices-hit-a-record-19918-pence-per-litreUsed for: UK diesel 142.38p to 199.18p and petrol 132.83p to 174.13p (28 Feb to 28 Sept).
- [38]•Wikipedia, “Timeline of the 2026 Iran war”.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_2026_Iran_warUsed for: start of the war on 28 February 2026.
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